Lachlan Godson, Pasture Agronomist and Researcher, Agrimix
A strong El Niño is in place, and the Bureau now expects it to become the strongest on record since reliable records began in 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific could peak at more than 3°C above average, beyond the 1982–83 record of about 2.6°C. The Bureau expects El Niño to continue through spring and summer, although its influence on our rainfall usually eases around early summer.
That points to an increased chance of drier conditions, but an El Niño declaration is not a rainfall forecast for your property. The Bureau’s own October to December outlook shows the mix: below-average rain likely in parts of the south-east, and above-average rain for most of WA and some central and northern areas.
There are really two things to think about: what happens in the paddock, and what happens in the market.
In the paddock
A dry run shows you what a green year hides. Which paddocks hold on and which fall over, where your legume content actually sits, and where management rather than rainfall is the limit. Mark the paddocks that disappoint this summer – that is your renovation list.
Dry conditions also tend to give the best kill on old grass ahead of cultivation, so a paddock cleaned up through a dry spell usually establishes better when the rain does come. Sowing seed is the last step, not the first.
In the market
In September 2023 an El Niño was declared, cattle prices fell to a nine-year low, and then it rained. Fear moved the market more than the season did.
The world backdrop this time looks different. The US herd is at a 75-year low, Canada is tight, the UK and Europe are coming off a hot, dry harvest, wheat out of Ukraine is squeezed, and urea and fuel are both well up. Lower global supply and higher input costs suggest some support under our prices, whatever the season does here.
What to do now
The season may go dry and our market may still hold. That is a reason to decide now which market you are aiming at and when, and to use a dry year to work out which pastures are worth keeping, and which are worth investing in.
Got paddocks on your renovation list? Send them through to the Agrimix team now. Whether it is legume options for the wet season or wider pasture and agronomy advice, we can help you plan for it. To start shortlisting species that suit your country, try Pasture Picker.
